- Apr 7, 2009
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- Joe
- Interest Rates now at 8-year highs.
- Used Car Prices to all-time highs
- Gasoline to 2 yr highs.
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Reading Tea Leaves: There's Change Coming...
- Thread starter joe.pistell
- Start date
- May 1, 2006
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- Alex
No doubt. It is just a matter of how hard the blow is in 2019/20.
Another thing to consider is how many car buyers from 2016, 2017, and 2018 borrowed money on terms longer than 60 months in comparison to how many lessees there were. Every year we have the opportunity to sell around 16,000,000 cars into a population of 200,000,000 drivers. When we put a chunk of that population into negative equity situations for more than 3 years we do not do anyone a service.
Another thing to consider is how many car buyers from 2016, 2017, and 2018 borrowed money on terms longer than 60 months in comparison to how many lessees there were. Every year we have the opportunity to sell around 16,000,000 cars into a population of 200,000,000 drivers. When we put a chunk of that population into negative equity situations for more than 3 years we do not do anyone a service.
- Dec 2, 2009
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- John
The Fixed writing is clearly on the wall.... in invisible ink??? 
Joe, you had posted, maybe several years ago, a graph from the 70's till present day, at the time, showing the SAAR related to the economy. Do you still have that.
We certainly didn't see a 3rd quarter this year like we did last year and its a concern. In fact our area, Hampton Roads, never recovered like the rest of the country after 08/09. Being the largest military area, and not having any other outstanding industries like tech or banking or manufacture of large scale, this area has been effected by military cut backs after 2009.
I agree, service is where it will be and you better figure how to have as much fixed absorption as possible to make it.
We certainly didn't see a 3rd quarter this year like we did last year and its a concern. In fact our area, Hampton Roads, never recovered like the rest of the country after 08/09. Being the largest military area, and not having any other outstanding industries like tech or banking or manufacture of large scale, this area has been effected by military cut backs after 2009.
I agree, service is where it will be and you better figure how to have as much fixed absorption as possible to make it.
Last edited:
- Apr 7, 2009
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How are sales going at your store(s)?
I keep hearing from dealers that sales are very soft.
p.s. Hi Eley! I just saw this post, I'll dig for that post you're referring to
I keep hearing from dealers that sales are very soft.
p.s. Hi Eley! I just saw this post, I'll dig for that post you're referring to
✨ AI Highlights
# Summary Dealers discuss early warning signs of a downturn in the automotive sales cycle, citing rising interest rates, used car prices, and gas prices as indicators that the strong sales period (measured by SAAR—Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) is ending. The consensus is that dealerships should prepare by shifting focus toward service departments and maximizing fixed cost absorption, as softer sales are already being reported across various markets. One dealer notes the structural risk created by extended loan terms (60+ months) leaving buyers in negative equity, which could further dampen future sales.
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